selected publications

• chapter

  • The Atmospheric Response to Realistic Reduced Summer Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies.  Geophysical Monograph. 91-110. 2008

• conference proceeding

  • Broadening the atmospheric bridge paradigm: ENSO teleconnections to the tropical west Pacific-Indian oceans over the seasonal cycle and to the north Pacific in summer.  Geophysical Monograph. 85-103. 2002
  • Winter-to-winter recurrence of sea surface temperature, salinity and mixed layer depth anomalies.  Progress in Oceanography. 41-61. 2000

• journal article

  • Impact of South Pacific Subtropical Dipole Mode on the Equatorial Pacific.  Journal of Climate. 2197-2216. 2018
  • Climate vulnerability and resilience in the most valuable North American fishery.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 1831-1836. 2018
  • Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans.  Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene. 2018
  • Impact of Poleward Moisture Transport from the North Pacific on the Acceleration of Sea Ice Loss in the Arctic since 2002.  Journal of Climate. 6757-6769. 2017
  • Seasonal trends and phenology shifts in sea surface temperature on the North American northeastern continental shelf.  Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene. 2017
  • Emergent anthropogenic trends in California Current upwelling.  Geophysical Research Letters. 5044-5052. 2017
  • On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming.  Journal of Climate. 3907-3925. 2017
  • Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts.  Progress in Oceanography. 15-49. 2017
  • Improved management of small pelagic fisheries through seasonal climate prediction.  Ecological Applications. 378-388. 2017
  • The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited.  Journal of Climate. 4399-4427. 2016
  • Response to Comments on "Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery".  Science. 2016
  • Seasonal phytoplankton blooms in the North Atlantic linked to the overwintering strategies of copepods.  Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene. 1-19. 2016
  • THE CLIMATE CHANGE WEB PORTAL A System to Access and Display Climate and Earth System Model Output from the CMIP5 Archive.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 523-530. 2016
  • Frequency of marine heatwaves in the North Atlantic and North Pacific since 1950.  Geophysical Research Letters. 2069-2076. 2016
  • A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast US Continental Shelf.  PLoS ONE. 2016
  • Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change.  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 118-132. 2016
  • ENSO and meridional modes: A null hypothesis for Pacific climate variability.  Geophysical Research Letters. 9440-9448. 2015
  • Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery.  Science. 809-812. 2015
  • Seasonal sea surface temperature anomaly prediction for coastal ecosystems.  Progress in Oceanography. 219-236. 2015
  • Moisture Pathways into the US Intermountain West Associated with Heavy Winter Precipitation Events*.  Journal of Hydrometeorology. 1184-1206. 2015
  • ENSO's Modulation of Water Vapor Transport over the Pacific-North American Region.  Journal of Climate. 3846-3856. 2015
  • Investigating the Local Atmospheric Response to a Realistic Shift in the Oyashio Sea Surface Temperature Front.  Journal of Climate. 1126-1147. 2015
  • Projected ocean warming creates a conservation challenge for river herring populations.  ICES Journal of Marine Science. 374-387. 2015
  • Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades.  Climate Dynamics. 1357-1379. 2014
  • Optimal growth of Central and East Pacific ENSO events.  Geophysical Research Letters. 4027-4034. 2014
  • A low latitude paleoclimate perspective on Atlantic multidecadal variability.  Journal of Marine Systems. 4-13. 2014
  • Climate variability during warm and cold phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) 1871-2008.  Journal of Marine Systems. 14-26. 2014
  • Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability*.  Journal of Climate. 2271-2296. 2014
  • Investigating the Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling in the North Pacific Ocean.  Journal of Climate. 592-606. 2014
  • Choosing and Using Climate-Change Scenarios for Ecological-Impact Assessments and Conservation Decisions.  Conservation Biology. 1147-1157. 2013
  • Greenhouse Gas-Induced Changes in Summer Precipitation over Colorado in NARCCAP Regional Climate Models.  Journal of Climate. 8690-8697. 2013
  • Cusk (Brosme brosme) and climate change: assessing the threat to a candidate marine fish species under the US Endangered Species Act.  ICES Journal of Marine Science. 1753-1768. 2012
  • ENSO's Impact on the Gap Wind Regions of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean.  Journal of Climate. 3549-3565. 2012
  • Enhanced upper ocean stratification with climate change in the CMIP3 models.  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 2012
  • ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in the Community Climate System Model Version 4.  Journal of Climate. 2622-2651. 2012
  • Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado's mountains.  Nature Climate Change. 125-131. 2012
  • An empirical model of tropical ocean dynamics.  Climate Dynamics. 1823-1841. 2011
  • Natural variation in ENSO flavors.  Geophysical Research Letters. 2011
  • On the Persistence of Cold-Season SST Anomalies Associated with the Annular Modes.  Journal of Climate. 2500-2515. 2011
  • Influence of the Meridional Shifts of the Kuroshio and the Oyashio Extensions on the Atmospheric Circulation.  Journal of Climate. 762-777. 2011
  • On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources.  Progress in Oceanography. 1-27. 2011
  • The Atmospheric Response to Projected Terrestrial Snow Changes in the Late Twenty-First Century.  Journal of Climate. 6430-6437. 2010
  • Central Pacific El Nino and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean.  Nature Geoscience. 762-765. 2010
  • Role of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio Systems in Large-Scale Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: A Review.  Journal of Climate. 3249-3281. 2010
  • Relationship between Precipitation in the Great Plains of the United States and Global SSTs: Insights from the IPCC AR4 Models.  Journal of Climate. 2941-2958. 2010
  • The Impact of Extratropical Atmospheric Variability on ENSO: Testing the Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism Using Coupled Model Experiments.  Journal of Climate. 2885-2901. 2010
  • Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited.  Geophysical Research Letters. 2010
  • Forecasting the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate-population model.  Ecological Applications. 452-464. 2010
  • Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Patterns and Mechanisms.  Annual Review of Marine Science. 115-143. 2010
  • Low-frequency variability in the Gulf of Alaska from coarse and eddy-permitting ocean models.  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 2009
  • The Late Fall Extratropical Response to ENSO: Sensitivity to Coupling and Convection in the Tropical West Pacific.  Journal of Climate. 6101-6118. 2008
  • The Role of Ekman Ocean Heat Transport in the Northern Hemisphere Response to ENSO.  Journal of Climate. 5688-5707. 2008
  • The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways.  Climate Dynamics. 315-331. 2008
  • Forecasting Pacific SSTs: Linear inverse model predictions of the PDO.  Journal of Climate. 385-402. 2008
  • Investigating the impact of reemerging sea surface temperature anomalies on the winter atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic.  Journal of Climate. 3510-3526. 2007
  • Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatas) in Alaska: assessing the ocean climate hypothesis.  Fisheries Oceanography. 46-67. 2007
  • The impact of cloud radiative feedback, remote ENSO forcing, and entrainment on the persistence of North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies.  Journal of Climate. 6243-6261. 2006
  • Delayed coastal upwelling along the US West Coast in 2005: A historical perspective.  Geophysical Research Letters. 2006
  • Daily to decadal sea surface temperature variability driven by state-dependent stochastic heat fluxes.  Journal of Physical Oceanography. 1940-1958. 2006
  • Effects of Ekman transport on the NAO response to a tropical Atlantic SST anomaly.  Journal of Climate. 4803-4818. 2006
  • Estimation of the surface heat flux response to sea surface temperature anomalies over the global oceans.  Journal of Climate. 4582-4599. 2005
  • Anatomy and decadal evolution of the Pacific Subtropical-Tropical Cells (STCs).  Journal of Climate. 3739-3758. 2005
  • Interdecadal changes in mesoscale eddy variance in the Gulf of Alaska circulation: Possible implications for the Steller sea lion ecline.  Atmosphere-Ocean. 231-240. 2005
  • Low-frequency pycnocline variability in the northeast Pacific.  Journal of Physical Oceanography. 1403-1420. 2005
  • Surface and subsurface dipole variability in the Indian Ocean and its relation with ENSO.  Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers. 619-635. 2004
  • The atmospheric response to realistic Arctic sea ice anomalies in an AGCM during winter.  Journal of Climate. 890-905. 2004
  • Remote response of the Indian Ocean to interannual SST variations in the tropical Pacific.  Journal of Climate. 362-372. 2004
  • ENSO-forced variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation.  Journal of Climate. 3853-3857. 2003
  • Why are there Rossby wave maxima in the Pacific at 10 degrees S and 13 degrees N?.  Journal of Physical Oceanography. 1549-1563. 2003
  • Potential feedbacks between Pacific Ocean ecosystems and interdecadal climate variations.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 617-633. 2003
  • Climate change and amphibian declines: is there a link?.  Diversity and Distributions. 111-121. 2003
  • Understanding the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies in midlatitudes.  Journal of Climate. 57-72. 2003
  • On the reemergence of North Atlantic SST anomalies.  Journal of Climate. 2707-2712. 2002
  • The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans.  Journal of Climate. 2205-2231. 2002
  • Rossby waves in the tropical North Pacific and their role in decadal thermocline variability.  Journal of Physical Oceanography. 3496-3515. 2001
  • Climate variability in regions of amphibian declines.  Conservation Biology. 930-942. 2001
  • Processes that influence sea surface temperature and ocean mixed layer depth variability in a coupled model.  Journal of Geophysical Research. 16823-16842. 2000
  • Evidence for a wind-driven intensification of the Kuroshio Current extension from the 1970s to the 1980s - Reply.  Journal of Climate. 1995-1995. 2000
  • A Linear Diagnosis of the Coupled Extratropical Ocean-Atmosphere System in the GFDL GCM.  Atmospheric Science Letters. 14-25. 2000
  • Net shortwave fluxes over the ocean.  Journal of Physical Oceanography. 3167-3174. 1999
  • The reemergence of SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean.  Journal of Climate. 2419-2433. 1999
  • Evidence for a wind-driven intensification of the Kuroshio Current extension from the 1970s to the 1980s.  Journal of Climate. 1697-1706. 1999
  • Subduction of decadal North Pacific temperature anomalies: Observations and dynamics.  Journal of Physical Oceanography. 1056-1070. 1999
  • Atmosphere-ocean interaction in the North Atlantic: Near-surface climate variability.  Journal of Climate. 1615-1632. 1998
  • Surface flux variability over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans.  Journal of Climate. 2963-2978. 1997
  • Variability in a mixed layer ocean model driven by Stochastic atmospheric forcing.  Journal of Climate. 2424-2442. 1996
  • Upper-ocean thermal variations in the North Pacific during 1970-1991.  Journal of Climate. 1840-1855. 1996
  • A modeling study of the interannual variability in the wintertime North Atlantic Ocean.  Journal of Climate. 3067-3083. 1995
  • BIENNIAL VARIABILITY IN AN ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL.  Journal of Climate. 431-440. 1995
  • A MECHANISM FOR THE RECURRENCE OF WINTERTIME MIDLATITUDE SST ANOMALIES.  Journal of Physical Oceanography. 122-137. 1995