Subseasonal prediction of springtime Pacific–North American transport using upper-level wind forecasts Journal Article uri icon



  • Abstract. Forecasts of Pacific jet variability are used to predict; stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and tropical-to-extratropical; moisture export (TME) during boreal spring over the Pacific–North American; region. A retrospective analysis first documents the regionality of STT and; TME for different Pacific jet patterns. Using these results as a guide,; Pacific jet hindcasts, based on zonal-wind forecasts from the European Centre; for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System, are; utilized to test whether STT and TME over specific geographic regions may be; predictable for subseasonal forecast leads (3–6 weeks ahead of time). Large; anomalies in STT to the mid-troposphere over the North Pacific, TME to the; west coast of the United States, and TME over Japan are found to have the best; potential for subseasonal predictability using upper-level wind forecasts. STT; to the planetary boundary layer over the intermountain west of the United; States is also potentially predictable for subseasonal leads but likely only; in the context of shifts in the probability of extreme events. While STT and; TME forecasts match verifications quite well in terms of spatial structure and; anomaly sign, the number of anomalous transport days is underestimated; compared to observations. The underestimation of the number of anomalous; transport days exhibits a strong seasonal cycle, which becomes steadily worse; as spring progresses into summer.;

publication date

  • May 12, 2021

has restriction

  • gold

Date in CU Experts

  • June 24, 2021 8:32 AM

Full Author List

  • Albers JR; Butler AH; Breeden ML; Langford AO; Kiladis GN

author count

  • 5

Other Profiles

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 2698-4016

Additional Document Info

start page

  • 433

end page

  • 452


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