This study estimates the effect of post-Dobbs abortion bans on the demand for clinic-based abortions in the U.S. at gestations after 24 weeks, when provider capacity is the most limited. Applying life table methods to national abortion incidence data and key informants’ estimates of the pre-Dobbs capacity for abortion provision at 24+ weeks, we model post-Dobbs change in number of abortions performed before 24 weeks gestation and estimate increased demand for abortions after 24 weeks. To assess the sensitivity of increased demand after 24 weeks, we use a variety of alternative assumptions regarding change in supply of care at earlier gestations, rates of self-managed abortion, and gestational age-specific rates of discontinuation of abortion care seeking.