The Excessive Rainfall Outlook at the Weather Prediction Center: Operational Definition, Construction, and Real-Time Collaboration Journal Article uri icon

Overview

abstract

  • Abstract; The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO), issued operationally from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), serves the Weather and Water Enterprise and decision-makers with probabilistic guidance and messaging context out to 3 days for excessive rainfall leading to impacts, including flash flooding. Eighty-three percent of all flood-related damages and 39% of all flood-related fatalities reported in Storm Data from 2010 to 2020 occurred in or near an ERO High Risk. Given that a High Risk is issued on only 4% of days, the presence of such risk can serve as an important step in raising situational awareness of a greater likelihood of a damaging and deadly flash flood day. This paper details the operational construction of the ERO at WPC and discusses the role of the ERO in the National Weather Service collaborative forecast process for heavy rainfall. Case studies where the ERO achieved a High Risk are presented for the deadly Montecito, California, flash flood and debris flow (2018) and Hurricane Harvey (2017). More broadly, challenges are highlighted which could be overcome by research to further improve ERO utility.

publication date

  • March 1, 2023

has restriction

  • bronze

Date in CU Experts

  • May 24, 2024 1:20 AM

Full Author List

  • Burke PC; Lamers A; Carbin G; Erickson MJ; Klein M; Chenard M; McNatt J; Wood L

author count

  • 8

Other Profiles

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0003-0007

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1520-0477

Additional Document Info

start page

  • E542

end page

  • E562

volume

  • 104

issue

  • 3