West-WRF 34-Year Reforecast: Description and Validation Journal Article uri icon

Overview

abstract

  • Abstract; This study presents a high-resolution regional reforecast based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, tailored for the prediction of extreme hydrometeorological events over the western United States (West-WRF) spanning 34 cool seasons (1 December–31 March) from 1986 to 2019. The West-WRF reforecast has a 9-km domain covering western North America and the eastern Pacific Ocean and a 3-km domain covering much of California. The West-WRF reforecast is generated by dynamically downscaling the control member of the Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) v10 reforecast. Verification of near-surface temperature, wind, and humidity highlight the added value in the reforecast relative to GEFS. Analysis of geopotential height indicates that West-WRF reduces the bias throughout much of the troposphere during early lead times. The West-WRF reforecast also shows clear improvement in atmospheric river characteristics (intensity and landfall) over GEFS. Analysis of mean areal precipitation (MAP) shows that at the basin scale, the reforecast can improve MAP relative to GEFS and reveals a consistent low bias in the reforecast for a coastal watershed (Russian) and a high bias observed in a Northern Sierra watershed (Yuba). The reforecast has a dry bias in seasonal precipitation in the northern Central Valley and Coast Mountain ranges, and a wet bias in the Northern Sierra Nevada, consistent with other operational high-resolution (<25 km) regional models. The applications of this high-resolution multiyear reforecast include process-based studies, assessment of model performance, and machine learning applications.

publication date

  • November 1, 2023

has restriction

  • closed

Date in CU Experts

  • August 15, 2024 12:02 PM

Full Author List

  • Cobb A; Steinhoff D; Weihs R; Delle Monache L; DeHaan L; Reynolds D; Cannon F; Kawzenuk B; Papadopolous C; Ralph FM

author count

  • 10

Other Profiles

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 1525-755X

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1525-7541

Additional Document Info

start page

  • 2125

end page

  • 2140

volume

  • 24

issue

  • 11