Thermal Precursors to Regional Dust Storms on Mars: Observations With Mars Climate Sounder Journal Article uri icon

Overview

abstract

  • Abstract; ; Surface heating by solar flux is an important mechanism in driving atmospheric instability and dust lifting on Mars. We investigated possible signals of elevated surface temperatures and surface flux prior to regional Mars dust storms using Mars Climate Sounder data. With a significant correlation deduced between these precursor signals and the dust storms, the average lag time between the signal peak and storm peak was inferred as 14°–20°; L; S; for an “A” storm and 12°–23°; L; S; for a “C” storm. Based on these derived lag times and the consistency of elevated surface heating, the potential predictability of these storms was analyzed. Using a defined surface flux difference threshold, five of seven “A” storms and six of eight “C” storms were successfully detected. The likelihood of obtaining equal or better detection rates from random sampling was computed to be 87% for “A” storms and 99% for “C” storms, albeit with a false positive rate of 30% for “A” storms. To explore the mechanisms by which these dust storms form, the hypothesis of excess surface heating leading to near‐surface convective instability triggering a positive dynamical feedback loop was postulated. Investigation of this hypothesis using Mars Climate Sounder vertical temperature profiles presented a reasonable correlation between preceding convective instability and regional dust storms. However, due to limitations in vertical resolution and sample size, this hypothesis currently remains inconclusive. Alternative mechanisms involving the potential connection between anomalous excess surface heating and regional dust storm formation are discussed.;

publication date

  • November 1, 2025

Date in CU Experts

  • November 13, 2025 4:22 AM

Full Author List

  • Pieris H; Hayne PO

author count

  • 2

Other Profiles

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 2169-9097

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 2169-9100

Additional Document Info

volume

  • 130

issue

  • 11

number

  • e2025JE009216