Unexpected Inter‐Annual Variability in Methane Emissions From Western Siberia’s Oil and Gas Sector | CU Experts

Abstract; ; Methane (CH; 4; ) emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) sector are a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Russia is a leading CH; 4; emitter, with the O&G sector accounting for approximately 80% of its total fossil fuel‐derived CH; 4; emissions. However, long‐term emission trends remain unclear due to significant discrepancies between bottom‐up inventories and atmospheric model estimates. We utilized atmospheric CH; 4; and carbon dioxide (CO; 2; ) measurements (2005–2021) from the JR‐STATION in Western Siberia, Russia's primary fossil fuel‐producing region, to clarify O&G‐derived CH; 4; emission variability. Our analysis reveals substantial fluctuations contradicting monotonic trends in national inventories. While national data sets suggest only gradual changes, our observations show a sharp increase exceeding 40% by 2009, followed by a decline through 2016 to levels 20% lower than in 2006. Despite rising O&G production, our findings do not support a continuous rise in CH; 4; emissions, highlighting the necessity of long‐term monitoring to verify national estimates.;

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