[Comment on “Exaggerated claims about earthquake predictions: Analysis of NASA's method”] Pattern informatics and cellular seismology: A comparison of methods Journal Article uri icon



  • The recent article in Eos by Kafka and Ebel [2007] is a criticism of a NASA press release issued on 4 October 2004 describing an earthquake forecast (http://quakesim.jpl.nasa.gov/scorecard.html) based on a pattern informatics (PI) method [Rundle et al., 2002]. This 2002 forecast was a map indicating the probable locations of earthquakes having magnitude m>5.0 that would occur over the period of 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009. Kafka and Ebel [2007] compare the Rundle et al. [2002] forecast to a retrospective analysis using a cellular seismology (CS) method. Here we analyze the performance of the Rundle et al. [2002] forecast using the first 15 of the m>5.0 earthquakes that occurred in the area covered by the forecasts.

publication date

  • June 12, 2007

has restriction

  • bronze

Date in CU Experts

  • November 16, 2020 7:31 AM

Full Author List

  • Rundle JB; Tiampo KF; Klein W

author count

  • 3

Other Profiles

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0096-3941

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 2324-9250

Additional Document Info

start page

  • 254

end page

  • 254


  • 88


  • 24