Mechanisms and impacts of climate tipping elements
Journal Article
Overview
abstract
“Climate tipping elements” often refer to large-scale earth systems; with the potential to respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate; change by transitioning towards substantially different long-term states; upon passing key thresholds, frequently referred to as “tipping; points.” In some but not all cases, such changes could produce; additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could; compound global warming. Improving understanding of tipping elements is; important for predicting future climate risks. Here we review; mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with ten; notable earth systems proposed to be climate tipping elements. We; evaluate which tipping elements are more imminent and whether shifts; will likely manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping; elements are significant to future global climate and will likely affect; major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the; 21st century. However, assessments under different emissions scenarios; indicate a strong potential to reduce or avoid impacts associated with; many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. Most tipping; elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within; years, and some proposed tipping elements may not exhibit tipping; behavior, rather responding more predictably and directly to the; magnitude of forcing. Nevertheless, significant uncertainties remain; associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for; further research and modeling to better constrain risks.
