Incorporating methane isotopologues alters tropical and subtropical methane emission estimates. Journal Article uri icon

Overview

abstract

  • Annual increases in atmospheric methane have reached record highs over the past five years, yet the underlying processes and regional sources remain uncertain. Here we quantify the average 2019-2021 global methane budget using Bayesian 4D-Var inversions that assimilate satellite methane retrievals and in-situ δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 measurements. The methane-isotopic inversion yields total emissions of 623 [585-643] Tg/y, slightly higher than the methane-only inversion. Incorporating isotopic constraints leads to a redistribution of emissions in tropical and subtropical regions. Compared with the methane-only inversion, the methane-isotopic inversion indicates that emission estimates increase by 26 [-3-27] Tg/y in East Asia (primarily China), 7 [-1-8] Tg/y in South Asia (primarily India), and 5 [-3-10] Tg/y in central Africa, while decreasing by 5 [-6-7] Tg/y in Amazon Basin and 12 [-14-20] Tg/y elsewhere. This points to a stronger anthropogenic contribution to the post-2019 methane budget, including higher fossil emissions in China and slightly less wetland emissions in the Amazon Basin. The methane-isotopic inversion also alters inferred emission seasonality, showing less seasonality in China compared with the methane-only inversion, weaker coal-mine phase-out signals, and a delayed summer peak in Southeast Asia, pointing to sources missing from current inventories.

publication date

  • May 4, 2026

Date in CU Experts

  • May 14, 2026 6:12 AM

Full Author List

  • Yu X; Canadell JG; Henze DK; Patra PK; Saunois M; Cen X; Lan X; Riddell-Young B; Röckmann T; Jackson RB

author count

  • 10

Other Profiles

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 2041-1723