Sensitivity of Building Loss Estimates to Major Uncertain Variables Journal Article uri icon

Overview

abstract

  • This paper examines the question of which sources of uncertainty most strongly affect the repair cost of a building in a future earthquake. Uncertainties examined here include spectral acceleration, ground-motion details, mass, damping, structural force-deformation behavior, building-component fragility, contractor costs, and the contractor's overhead and profit. We measure the variation (or swing) of the repair cost when each basic input variable except one is taken at its median value, and the remaining variable is taken at its 10thand at its 90thpercentile. We perform this study using a 1960s highrise nonductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building. Repair costs are estimated using the assembly-based vulnerability (ABV) method. We find that the top three contributors to uncertainty are assembly capacity (the structural response at which a component exceeds some damage state), shaking intensity (measured here in terms of damped elastic spectral acceleration, Sa), and details of the ground motion with a given Sa.

publication date

  • November 1, 2002

Full Author List

  • Porter KA; Beck JL; Shaikhutdinov RV

Other Profiles

Additional Document Info

start page

  • 719

end page

  • 743

volume

  • 18

issue

  • 4